Posted on March 14, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), Deutsch (German), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Baden-Baden, the German spa town built on ancient thermal springs, is a fitting venue to discuss the health of the global economy during this week’s meeting of the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors.
Policymakers will likely share a sense of growing optimism, because the recent strengthening of activity suggests that the world economy may finally snap out of its multi-year convalescence. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, G-20, growth, IMF, Investment, jobs, technology, U.S. | Tagged: China, Christine Lagarde, cross-border linkages, economic integration, euro area, G20, GDP, global economy, IMF, iMFdirect blog, inclusive growth, India, inequality, Japan, labor market reforms, Migration, spillover effects, tax reform, technology, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 13, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Angana Banerji, Era Dabla-Norris, Romain Duval, and Davide Furceri
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),Deutsch (German), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Many advanced countries need structural reforms to make their economies more productive and raise long-term living standards. Our new research shows that provided countries can afford it, fiscal policy, through spending or tax incentives, can help governments overcome some obstacles to the reforms, particularly in the early stages. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, labor markets, structural reforms | Tagged: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations, corporate taxes, debt, deregulation, employment, Finland, fiscal policy, GDP, Germany, growth, Ireland, jobs, labor market reforms, product market reforms, productivity, spending, tax incentives, tax revenues, the Netherlands, United Kingdom | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 28, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Camilla Lund Andersen
Deep unease about rising inequality and stagnating living standards in advanced economies was at the heart of the 2016 political upheaval. Globalization and trade have been blamed, but entrenched slow growth—what economists call secular stagnation—may be the real culprit. Parents who took for granted that their children would enjoy a brighter future had their dreams dashed by the global financial crisis of 2008. Nine years later, rising populism and a return to nationalist, inward-looking policies threaten to unravel the postwar economic order. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, developing countries, Emerging Markets, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, trade | Tagged: economic growth, Finance & Development. F&D, GDP, global financial crisis, Globalization, IMF, iMFdirect blog, income distribution, inequality, nationalism, population aging, population growth, populism, secular stagnation, trade, youth | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 7, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Sebastian Acevedo
Version in Español (Spanish)
Hurricanes are a fact of life in the Caribbean. Every year there are, on average, 12 storms that pass through the region, of which about half reach hurricane force winds (winds above 119 kilometers per hour). Hurricanes are the leading cause of natural disasters in the Caribbean, making the region one of the most vulnerable in the world. Yet, only 62 percent of disasters caused by hurricanes have recorded data on economic damages, as the information is difficult to collect.
Filed under: Caribbean, climate change, International Monetary Fund, natural disasters | Tagged: Fiscal buffers, GDP, Hurricanes, infrastructure investment, insurance | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 23, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
Versions in Português (Portuguese), and Español (Spanish)
The global landscape has changed since our last update in October 2016. These changes have been mainly shaped by:
- An anticipated shift in the U.S. policy mix, higher growth and inflation, and a stronger dollar. In the United States—while potential policy changes remain uncertain—fiscal policy is likely to become expansionary, while monetary policy is expected to tighten faster than previously expected because of stronger demand and inflation pressures. As a result, growth is projected to rise to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018—a cumulative increase in GDP of ½ percentage point relative to the October forecast. The expected change in the policy mix and growth has led to an increase in global long-term interest rates, a stronger dollar in real effective terms, and a moderation of capital flows to Latin America.
- Improved outlook for other advanced economies and China for 2017–18, reflecting somewhat stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as projected policy stimulus.
- Some recovery in commodity prices, especially metal and oil prices, on the back of strong infrastructure and real estate investment in China, expectations of fiscal easing in the United States, and agreement among major petroleum producers to cut supply.
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, structural reforms | Tagged: Caribbean, Central America, GDP, growth, IMF, iMFdirect blog, infrastructure development, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, regional economic outlook, South America, structural reform | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 21, 2016 by iMFdirect
Terms of trade is the price of a country’s exports relative to its imports. The commodity terms of trade refers to a country’s commodity exports relative to its commodity imports.
When the price of commodities, like oil, plummeted in 2015, economies that rely on exporting commodities had their terms of trade drop by an average of about 10 percent of GDP that year. Economies that rely more on importing commodities saw about a 2 percent of GDP benefit from the 2015 drop in prices. Continue reading
Filed under: commodities, Economic research, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, trade, U.S. | Tagged: commodity exporters, commodity importers, commodity prices, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect blog, oil, trade, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 12, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld and Poul M. Thomsen
Versions in عربي (Arabic); Français (French); Deutsch (German); ελληνικά (Greek); and Español (Spanish)
Greece is once again in the headlines as discussions for the second review of its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) program are gaining pace. Unfortunately, the discussions have also spurred some misinformation about the role and the views of the IMF. Above all, the IMF is being criticized for demanding more fiscal austerity, in particular for making this a condition for urgently needed debt relief. This is not true, and clarifications are in order. Continue reading
Filed under: Debt Relief, Europe, Fiscal policy, Greece, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: austerity, debt, debt relief, debt sustainability, ESM, euro zone, Europe, European Stability Mechanism, financial stability, fiscal policy, GDP, Greece, IMF, iMFdirect blog, International Monetary Fund | Leave a comment »