Greece: Toward a Workable Program

Posted on February 11, 2016 by iMFdirect

poul-thomsen1By Poul M. Thomsen

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Español, Français, and ελληνικά (Greek)

Having successfully pulled Greece from the brink last summer and subsequently stabilized the economy, the government of Alexis Tsipras is now discussing with its European partners and the IMF a comprehensive multi-year program that can secure a lasting recovery and make debt sustainable. While discussions continue, there have been some misperceptions about the International Monetary Fund’s views and role in the process. I thought it would be useful to clarify issues.

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Filed under: Debt Relief, euro zone, Europe, Government, Greece, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Fiscal Costs of Hidden Deficits: Beware—When It Rains, It Pours

Posted on February 9, 2016 by iMFdirect

By Elva Bova, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, Frederik Toscani, and Elif Ture

(Version in Español)

Budgets can be full of surprises. And not always good ones. Often times, debt increases significantly because an unforeseen obligation materializes. These contingent liabilities, as they are known in the economist’s jargon, can have significant economic and fiscal costs. In fact, on many occasions, large and unexpected increases in debt across the world were due to the materialization of contingent liabilities. That is why they are often called hidden deficits.

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Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Fiscal, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

The Top Ten Blogs of 2015

Posted on December 30, 2015 by iMFdirect

by iMFdirect

2015 was a bold year for blogs at the IMF.  Boldness grows less common in the higher ranks, according to Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, but he couldn’t be more wrong when it comes to these blogs: the list includes work by the IMF’s former chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fiscal Affairs Department.

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Filed under: International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Olivier Blanchard’s Greatest Hits

Posted on August 31, 2015 by iMFdirect

By iMFdirect

For a man who declared on his arrival at the IMF “I do not blog,” Olivier Blanchard, our soon-to-be former Chief Economist, is one hell of a blogger.

Prolific and popular. A demi-god: half economist, half artist.  Blanchard writes the way he thinks: sharp, frank, and intellectual, while pushing against the edges of his métier with the creativity and honesty of a singular economist.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Greece: Past Critiques and the Path Forward

Posted on July 9, 2015 by iMFdirect

IMG_0248By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in Deutsch, Español, Français, Italiano, ελληνικά, Русский, 中文, 日本語, عربي, and Português)

All eyes are on Greece, as the parties involved continue to strive for a lasting deal, spurring vigorous debate and some sharp criticisms, including of the IMF.

In this context, I thought some reflections on the main critiques could help clarify some key points of contention as well as shine a light on a possible way forward.

The main critiques, as I see them, fall under the following four categories:

  • The 2010 program only served to raise debt and demanded excessive fiscal adjustment.
  • The financing to Greece was used to repay foreign banks.
  • Growth-killing structural reforms, together with fiscal austerity, have led to an economic depression.
  • Creditors have learned nothing and keep repeating the same mistakes.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Behind the News in Greece and China, Moderate Growth Continues

Posted on July 9, 2015 by iMFdirect

 ​By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in Español and عربي)

Today we published the World Economic Outlook Update.

But first, let me talk about the elephant in the room, namely Greece.

The word elephant may not be right: As dramatic as the events in Greece are, Greece accounts for less than two percent of the Eurozone GDP, and less than one half of one percent of world GDP.
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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Politics, Reform | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Greece: A Credible Deal Will Require Difficult Decisions By All Sides

Posted on June 14, 2015 by iMFdirect

blanchBy Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in 中文, Français, ελληνικά, عربي, and Español)

The status of negotiations between Greece and its official creditors – the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF – dominated headlines last week.  At the core of the negotiations is a simple question: How much of an adjustment has to be made by Greece, how much has to be made by its official creditors?

In the program agreed in 2012 by Greece with its European partners, the answer was:   Greece was to generate enough of a primary surplus to limit its indebtedness.  It also agreed to a number of reforms which should lead to higher growth.  In consideration, and subject to Greek implementation of the program, European creditors were to provide the needed financing, and provide debt relief if debt exceeded 120% by the end of the decade.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

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