Posted on January 16, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.
An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, labor force, U.S. | Tagged: advanced economies, China, economic growth, emerging economies, Europe, financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Maurice Obstfeld, United States, US Federal Reserve, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 12, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Tao Zhang and Vladimir Klyuev
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), and Español (Spanish)
Low-income countries should build more infrastructure to strengthen growth. A new IMF analysis looks at ways to overcome obstacles.
The clock is now ticking on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and while investment—critical to this agenda—has been rising in recent years among low-income countries, weak infrastructure is still hampering growth. Governments need to make significant improvements to lay foundations for flourishing economies: roads to connect people to markets, electricity to keep factories running, sanitation to stave off disease, and pipelines to deliver safe water. Continue reading
Filed under: developing countries, Emerging Markets, growth, IMF, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Low-income countries, Public debt, structural reforms | Tagged: China, concessional lending, developing countries, IMF, iMFdirect blog, inclusive growth, infrastructure investment, Infrastructure Policy Support Initiative, International Monetary Fund, low-income countries, public debt, SDGs, sustainable development Goals, tax reform, telecommunications | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 22, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Tao Zhang
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), and Français (French)
Small states are far more vulnerable than other countries to natural disasters and climate change. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states (economies with a population of less than 1.5 million) is more than four times that for larger countries, in relation to GDP. These countries—whether landlocked nations or small island states—need a range of approaches to deal with catastrophe, including not only better disaster response but also more focus on risk reduction and preparedness. Continue reading
Filed under: climate change, developing countries, Economic research, Financing, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, natural disasters, Public debt | Tagged: Climate change, developing countries, IMF, IMF lending, iMFdirect blog, natural disasters, Paris agreement, public spending, small states, technical assistance | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 21, 2016 by iMFdirect
Terms of trade is the price of a country’s exports relative to its imports. The commodity terms of trade refers to a country’s commodity exports relative to its commodity imports.
When the price of commodities, like oil, plummeted in 2015, economies that rely on exporting commodities had their terms of trade drop by an average of about 10 percent of GDP that year. Economies that rely more on importing commodities saw about a 2 percent of GDP benefit from the 2015 drop in prices. Continue reading
Filed under: commodities, Economic research, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, trade, U.S. | Tagged: commodity exporters, commodity importers, commodity prices, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect blog, oil, trade, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 20, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Version inعربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
After a year marked by financial turbulence, political surprises, and unsteady growth in many parts of the world, the Fed’s decision this month to raise interest rates for just the second time in a decade is a healthy symptom that the recovery of the world’s largest economy is on track.
The Fed’s action was hardly a surprise: markets had for weeks placed a high probability on last week’s move. But market developments preceding the Fed decision did surprise many market watchers. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, jobs, labor force, U.S. | Tagged: developing economies, emerging market economies, exchange rates, government spending, growth, IMF, iMFdirect blog, inflationary pressures, interest rates, jobs, labor force, trade, U.S. elections, U.S. Fed, U.S. taxes, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 16, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Joong Shik Kang and Wojciech S. Maliszewski
Version in 中文 (Chinese)
China urgently needs to tackle its corporate-debt problem before it becomes a major drag on growth in the world’s No. 2 economy. Corporate debt has reached very high levels and continues to grow. In our recent paper, we recommend that the government act promptly to adopt a comprehensive program that would sacrifice some economic growth in the short term while rapidly returning the economy to a sustainable growth path.
Filed under: Asia, banking, China, Debt Relief, Economic research, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: Asia, banking, China, corporate debt, credit gap, credit risks, debt relief, deleveraging, Financial regulation, IMF, iMFdirect blog, investment, Japan, Spain | Leave a comment »