A Shifting U.S. Policy Mix: Global Rewards and Risks


maury-obstfeld-imfBy Maurice Obstfeld

Version inعربي (Arabic),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

After a year marked by financial turbulence, political surprises, and unsteady growth in many parts of the world, the Fed’s decision this month to raise interest rates for just the second time in a decade is a healthy symptom that the recovery of the world’s largest economy is on track.

The Fed’s action was hardly a surprise: markets had for weeks placed a high probability on last week’s move. But market developments preceding the Fed decision did surprise many market watchers. Continue reading

Infrastructure Done Right


By iMFdirect

In the face of crumbling bridges and super-low interest rates, many countries are talking and planning to increase spending on infrastructure. And it’s not just about more spending; it’s about smart spending. This is something that the IMF has urged countries to consider for several years, starting with our Fall 2014 World Economic OutlookContinue reading

Strengthening Canada’s Economic Toolkit: Improving the Inflation Targeting Framework


By Maurice Obstfeld, Douglas Laxton, Yulia Ustyugova, and Hou Wang

For the past 25 years, Canada’s monetary policy framework has been working well. Headline inflation averaged 1.9 percent, 1994–2015, and long-term inflation expectations have been very well anchored to the 2 percent target (Chart 1).

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The Whole Can Be Greater Than the Sum of its Parts


By Vitor Gaspar, Maurice Obstfeld and Ratna Sahay

There are policy options to bring new life into anemic economic recoveries and to counteract renewed slowdowns.  Our new paper, along with our co-authors, debunks widespread concerns that little can be done by policymakers facing a vicious cycle of (too) low growth, (too) low inflation, near-zero interest rates, and high debt levels.

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The Changing Roles of Emerging Economies and the Insurance Sector


by iMFdirect

Today the IMF published some of its new research from the Global Financial Stability Report on two hot topics: emerging economies and the insurance sector in advanced economies.  Here’s a quick take on the latest analysis. Continue reading

The Specter of Risk in the Derivatives of Bond Mutual Funds


By Fabio Cortes

Current regulations only require U.S. and European bond mutual funds to disclose a limited amount of information about the risks they have taken using financial instruments called derivatives. This leaves investors and policymakers in the dark on a key issue for financial stability.  Our new research in the October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report looks at just how much is at stake.  Continue reading

Are Capital Flows Expansionary or Contractionary? It Depends What Kind


By Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon

(Version in Español)

With the expected move by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year, many are asking about the effects on emerging market countries. Will outflows increase, and how will this affect economic activity in emerging markets? To answer that, we need to know if capital inflows are in general expansionary or contractionary.

One would think that the question was settled long ago. But, in fact, it is not. It is a case where theory suggests one thing and practice another. The workhorse model of international macro (the Mundell-Fleming model), for example, suggests that, for a given monetary policy rate, inflows lead to an appreciation, and thus to a contraction in net exports—and a decrease in output. Only if the policy rate is decreased sufficiently can capital inflows be expansionary. Symmetrically, using a model along these lines, Paul Krugman argued in his 2013 Mundell-Fleming lecture that capital outflows are expansionary.

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