Posted on September 28, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Vitor Gaspar, Maurice Obstfeld and Ratna Sahay
There are policy options to bring new life into anemic economic recoveries and to counteract renewed slowdowns. Our new paper, along with our co-authors, debunks widespread concerns that little can be done by policymakers facing a vicious cycle of (too) low growth, (too) low inflation, near-zero interest rates, and high debt levels.
Filed under: capital markets, Economic research, Fiscal policy, Government, IMF, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, Reform | Tagged: Christine Lagarde, collective action, economic recovery, fiscal policy, G20, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, inflation, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Maurice Obstfeld, monetary policy, public debt, Ratna Sahay, Vitor Gaspar | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 4, 2016 by iMFdirect
Today the IMF published some of its new research from the Global Financial Stability Report on two hot topics: emerging economies and the insurance sector in advanced economies. Here’s a quick take on the latest analysis. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, China, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Brazil, China, Global Financial Stability Report, insurance, interest rates, Mexico, South Africa | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 17, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Fabio Cortes
Current regulations only require U.S. and European bond mutual funds to disclose a limited amount of information about the risks they have taken using financial instruments called derivatives. This leaves investors and policymakers in the dark on a key issue for financial stability. Our new research in the October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report looks at just how much is at stake. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic research, Europe, Financial markets, International Monetary Fund, U.S. | Tagged: bonds, derivatives, financial markets, financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, IMF, interest rates, leverage, market volatility, mutual funds, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 7, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon
(Version in Español)
With the expected move by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year, many are asking about the effects on emerging market countries. Will outflows increase, and how will this affect economic activity in emerging markets? To answer that, we need to know if capital inflows are in general expansionary or contractionary.
One would think that the question was settled long ago. But, in fact, it is not. It is a case where theory suggests one thing and practice another. The workhorse model of international macro (the Mundell-Fleming model), for example, suggests that, for a given monetary policy rate, inflows lead to an appreciation, and thus to a contraction in net exports—and a decrease in output. Only if the policy rate is decreased sufficiently can capital inflows be expansionary. Symmetrically, using a model along these lines, Paul Krugman argued in his 2013 Mundell-Fleming lecture that capital outflows are expansionary.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bonds, capital flows, emerging markets, foreign exchange, IMF, interest rates, macroeconomic models, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Carlos Caceres, Yan Carrière-Swallow, and Bertrand Gruss
(Versions in Español and Português)
As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to raise policy rates for the first time in almost a decade, Latin America is in the midst of a sharp downturn with unemployment on the rise. In this context, many central banks across the region have kept interest rates low to support economic activity. But can monetary policy stay that way as global rates rise? What will the Fed liftoff imply for the region?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: interest rates, Latin America, Mexico, monetary policy, Peru, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, spillovers, U.S. Federal Reserve, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 7, 2015 by iMFdirect
by Vitor Gaspar
(Versions: عربي, 中文, Français, Русский, and Español)
The world economy is experiencing important transitions and associated uncertainties.
- Commodity prices have fallen sharply, with adverse consequences for exporting countries.
- China’s rebalancing and the prospect of U.S. interest rate increases are having important and costly spillover effects on other economies.
- And these and other factors are posing important fiscal challenges, especially for emerging markets.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Public debt | Tagged: buffers, Chile, China, commodiity prices, emerging market, Fiscal Monitor, interest rates, Norway, Saudi Arabia, spillovers, U.S. interest rates, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Selim Elekdag and Gaston Gelos
Debt held by firms in emerging market economies in a currency other than their own poses extra complications these days. When the U.S. Fed does eventually raise interest rates, the accompanying further strengthening of the U.S. dollar will mean an emerging market’s own currency will depreciate against the higher value of the U.S. dollar, and would make it increasingly difficult for firms to service their foreign currency-denominated debts if they have not been properly hedged.
In the latest Global Financial Stability Report, we find that firms in emerging markets that have increased their debt-to-assets ratios have generally also increased their overall sensitivity to changes in the exchange rate—commonly called exchange-rate exposure.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Africa, Asia, construction, emerging markets, Europe, exchange rate, foreign exchange, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, interest rates, Latin America, Middle East, monetary policy, U.S. Fed | Leave a comment »