Posted on July 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Stefan Laseen, Andrea Pescatori, and Jarkko Turunen
Academics and policy-makers alike have long struggled with the question of whether to use monetary policy to dampen asset price booms – whether to “lean against the wind” or not. Can officials identify emerging asset price bubbles, what are the implications of bursting them, and is monetary policy the appropriate response to potential bubbles? These questions have become even more important to the policy debate in the wake of the global financial crisis, which was preceded by an unsustainable boom in sub-prime mortgage lending and housing prices.
Given over six years of near zero policy interest rates, should the U.S. Fed now use interest rates to lean against potential financial stability risks that may have built up?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics | Tagged: Federal Reserve, financial risks, financial stability, inflation, interest rates, investment, macroprudential policy, U.S., U.S. Fed, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 9, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos and Ke Wang
(Versions in Español and Português)
Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has weakened significantly over the last few years. Part of this weakness appears to be here to stay, and IMF economists have marked down medium-term growth projections. This story sounds eerily familiar, given the region’s past difficulties to improve its comparative growth performance.
Abstracting from the “golden decade” from 2003 to 2011, when rising commodity prices powered a strong expansion, why has the region been unable to sustain sufficiently high growth rates to catch up with more advanced economies? Part of the answer is Latin America’s modest success in branching out into more sophisticated—or complex—goods.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Brazil, Caribbean, commodiity prices, commodity exports, education, infrastructure, investment, Latin America, macroeconomic stability, Mexico, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 5, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(Versions in Español and Português)
Latin America has reached a critical moment. So much better off than two decades ago, and still facing deep-seated problems that get in the way of sustained strong growth and economic development. To better understand these problems from countries’ perspectives, and explore ways the IMF and others can help address them, we brought together experts from the region and beyond—central bankers, finance ministers, and academics—for a high-level conference in Washington, D.C. earlier this week.
Under the theme of “Rising Challenges to Growth and Stability,” participants engaged in lively debates about the current difficulties facing Latin America and the policy priorities for now and the future.
Here are my main takeaways from the event:
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Español, Finance, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Annual Meetings, commodiity prices, economic development, economic diversification, education, governance, inequality, infrastructure, investment, Latin America, Peru, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, trade, U.S. interest rates | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 14, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in عربي and Español)
In our April 2015 World Economic Outlook, we forecast global growth to be roughly the same this year than last year, 3.5% versus 3.4%. This global number reflects an increase in growth in advanced economies, 2.4% versus 1.8%, offset by a decrease in growth in emerging market and developing economies, 4.3% versus 4.6% last year. In short, to repeat the words used by the IMF Managing Director last week, we see growth as “moderate and uneven”.
Behind these numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world economy. Some, such as the decline in the price of oil and the evolution of exchange rates, are highly visible. Some, from crisis legacies to lower potential growth, play more of a role behind the scene but are important nevertheless. Let me briefly review them.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Middle East, Reform | Tagged: Brazil, China, euro area crisis, exchange rate, forecast, Greece, India, infrastructure, investment, Japan, Middle East, oil exporters, oil importers, oil prices, Olivier Blanchard, Russia, Ukraine, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 8, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Xavier Debrun
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, Русский, 日本語and Español)
Anyone can easily picture an economy where instability, stagnation and runaway government deficits converge into a perfect storm. Yet the simple mirror image of stability, growth, and balanced budgets currently seems odd to many. And with monetary policy looking breathless, some even wonder whether sacrificing fiscal sanity for short-term growth might not be worth a try.
In any economic debate, looking at the data is always a good starting point. And the latest issue of the Fiscal Monitor does exactly that. Our study looks at the experience with fiscal stabilization during the past three decades in a broad sample of 85 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. The message is loud and clear: governments can use fiscal policy to smooth fluctuations in economic activity, and this can lead to higher medium-term growth. This essentially means governments need to save in good times so that they can use the budget to stabilize output in bad times. In advanced economies, making fiscal policies more stabilizing could cut output volatility by about 15 percent, with a growth dividend of about 0.3 percentage point annually.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: debt, emerging market, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, fiscal stabilization, government deficits, investment, recession | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 7, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Aqib Aslam, Daniel Leigh, and Seok Gil Park
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)
The debate continues on why businesses aren’t investing more in machinery, equipment and plants. In advanced economies, business investment—the largest component of private investment—has contracted much more since the global financial crisis than after previous recession. And there are worrying signs that this has eroded long-term economic growth.
Getting the diagnosis right is critical for devising policies to encourage firms to invest more. If low investment is merely a symptom of a weak economic environment, with firms responding to weak sales, then calls for expanding overall economic activity could be justified. If, on the other hand, special impediments are mainly to blame, such as policy uncertainty or financial sector weaknesses, as some suggest, then these must be removed before investment can rise.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: euro area, fiscal policy, infrastructure, infrastructure investment, investment, monetary policy, sovereign debt, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Changyong Rhee
(Versions in 日本語)
Abenomics can succeed, despite recent setbacks to growth and inflation, in revitalizing Japan by making steadfast progress on all three of its arrows equally and simultaneously, as we show in our new book. This is also essential to avoid an undue weakening of the yen and ensure positive spillovers to Japan’s neighbors, its region, and the global economy.
The Legacy: Structural Changes During the Lost Decades
Most Japan followers will be familiar with the following striking statistic: in 2013, Japan’s level of nominal GDP was about 6 percent below its mid 1990s level. During this period, three important structural changes have been a brake on growth and efforts to get out of deflation: Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Abenomics, Bank of Japan, deflation, deleveraging, inflation, investment, Japan, labor market, small and medium-sized enterprises, structural changes, structural reform, subsidiaries | Leave a comment »