Posted on October 27, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
While oil prices have stabilized somewhat in recent months, there are good reasons to believe they won’t return to the high levels that preceded their historic collapse two years ago. For one thing, shale oil production has permanently added to supply at lower prices. For another, demand will be curtailed by slower growth in emerging markets and global efforts to cut down on carbon emissions. It all adds up to a “new normal” for oil.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, technology | Tagged: advanced economies, China, COP21, developing economies, economic growth, emerging market economies, financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Iran, oil, oil prices, OPEC, Russia, shale oil, technology | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 8, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Pritha Mitra
(Versions in Français and عربي)
Aspirations for greater fairness were at the core of the protests that triggered the Arab Spring almost five years ago—and remain largely unfulfilled today. In our new paper, we show that tax reform can go a long way towards meeting those aspirations.
Taxation is a critical interface between the state and citizens. How much revenue is raised, how the tax burden is distributed, and how taxation is implemented can all powerfully affect both the reality and the perception of economic opportunities—and the degree of trust in government.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Reform, عربي | Tagged: Algeria, Arab Spring, income tax, Iran, Middle East and North Africa, oil exporters, oil importers, tax reform, tax system, taxation, taxes, Value-Added Tax, Yemen | 1 Comment »
Posted on May 25, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Masood Ahmed
In the midst of an early and uncertain economic recovery from the global crisis, countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have been experiencing a sharp slowdown in the growth of credit to the private sector, by about 30 percentage points on average relative to precrisis peak rates.
For many sectors, firms, and households that depend on bank financing, this slowdown may be forcing them to scale back their spending plans, or to resort to scarce or costly alternative avenues for financing. Slow credit growth may therefore be constraining the strength of the recovery in the short run, in addition to limiting prospects for longer-term growth. Policymakers are understandably concerned.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic research, Financial Crisis, IMF | Tagged: balance sheets, bank funding, bank profitability, capital losses, countercyclical policy, credit culture, credit demand, credit growth, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, lending, liquidity, Morocco, nonperforming loans, private sector, Qatar, risk aversion, Saudi Arabia, supply side, UAE | 4 Comments »
Posted on October 11, 2009 by iMFdirect
By Masood Ahmed
Middle East oil exporters are squarely facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression head on. Despite the sharp drop in oil prices last year, the oil exporters rightly decided to maintain spending by drawing upon reserves amassed during the boom years.
High public spending and exceptional anticrisis financial measures have not only cushioned oil exporters’ own economies but are also contributing to sustaining global demand. They have also helped the interlinked economies of neighboring oil importers.
Facing this boom-bust cycle
Between 2004 and 2008, Middle East oil-exporting countries grew by about 6 percent a year and accumulated $1.3 trillion in foreign assets. With the striking drop in oil prices—from a peak of $147 per barrel in mid-2008 to around $30 per barrel at the beginning of 2009—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been hardest hit. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are expected to see the most pronounced drops in oil GDP growth—8 and 15 percentage points, respectively—this year.
Despite sharp drop in oil prices last year, oil exporters rightly decided to maintain spending by drawing on reserves amassed during boom years (photo: Wathiq Khuzaie/Getty Images)
During the precrisis boom years, banks had lent substantial amounts for real estate and equity purchases and made large profits. With the onset of the crisis, asset values fell sharply and the global deleveraging led to a severe tightening of credit conditions, especially in the GCC. Banks’ balance sheets have come under pressure credit growth has slowed sharply—up to 40 percentage points in Qatar.
Filed under: Economic Crisis | Tagged: Algeria, bank financing, G-20, Iran, Iraq, Libya, oil exporters, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Yemen | 1 Comment »