A stock in excess of €900 billion of nonperforming loans continue to clutter the European banking system, impeding economic growth. This issue remains a key challenge for policy makers. As we show in our latest Global Financial Stability Report, part of the solution to address this legacy is an upgrade in legal systems. Current inefficiencies—long foreclosure times and insolvency procedures—are a reason for the gap between the value of loans on bank balance sheets and the price investors are willing to pay. A reliable legal environment and an efficient judicial system maximize the value of nonperforming loans (NPLs), reduce the value gap and give banks greater incentive to get NPLs off the books. Our analysis, using time to foreclose as a proxy for effective insolvency regimes, shows there is a large upside for new lending capacity in the euro area (Chart 1).
If financing is the lifeblood of European small businesses, then the effect of the financial crisis was similar to a cardiac arrest. The flow of affordable credit from banks was choked off and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were hit hardest. Today, with bank lending still recovering from that shock, smart policy actions could open up securitization as a source of financing to help small businesses start up, flourish and grow.
SMEs are vital to the European economy. They account for 99 out of every 100 businesses, two in every three employees, and 58 cents of each euro of value added of the business sector in Europe. Improving access to finance would therefore not only revive small businesses, but also support a strong and lasting recovery for Europe as a whole.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Europe, Finance, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: bank lending, bond markets, capital markets, credit, EU, Europe, France, Germany, infrastructure, Italy, private investment, Securitization, small and medium-sized enterprises, Spain | Leave a comment »
Global growth remains anemic more than five years after the global financial crisis. If nothing is done, the prospect of settling into a “new mediocre” will become reality, especially in advanced economies.
In many advanced economies, accommodative monetary policies, growth-friendly fiscal frameworks, and efforts to tackle private debt overhang and improve tax revenues and compliance are essential to lift economic growth in the short term.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: advanced economies, balance sheets, France, infrastructure, Italy, Japan, jobs, labor force, monetary policy, Portugal, reforms, women | Leave a comment »
Investment in the euro area, and particularly private investment, has not recovered since the onset of the global financial crisis.
In fact, the decline in investment has been much more drastic than in other financial crises; and is more in line with the most severe of these crises (see Chart 1). The October 2014 World Economic Outlook showed that many governments cut investment because their finances became strained during the crisis. In addition, housing investment collapsed in some countries, reflecting a natural scaling back after an unsustainable boom. But what is holding back private non-residential investment?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: banking union, euro area, France, Germany, Greece, investment, Ireland, Italy, monetary policy, Portugal, Spain, structural reform | Leave a comment »
The last five years have been a reminder of the importance of interconnections and risks in the global economy. They have triggered intense discussions on the optimal way to combine fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to deal with spillovers, and on the need and the scope for coordination of such policies.
The IMF’s 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, which took place in Washington DC on November 13 and 14, 2014, focused on Cross-Border Spillovers, and took stock of what we know and do not know. The summary below picks and chooses some papers, and does not do justice to the full set of papers presented and discussed at the conference. They can all be downloaded, and videos of each session are available, at www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2014/arc.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, G-20, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: banks, capital flows, European Central Bank, exchange rate, Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, G-20, global economy, global trade, IMF Annual Research Conference, Italy, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, public spending, Spain, spillovers, unconventional monetary policy, United States | Leave a comment »
(Versions in 日本語)
It is no surprise that, as part of its revised growth strategy presented in June, the Japanese government has announced it will reduce the corporate income tax rate. At more than 35 percent for most businesses, the Japanese rate is one of the highest among the industrialized countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (see Chart 1). Moreover, at a time when Japan needs to boost economic growth, the corporate income tax rate is generally seen as the country’s most growth-distortive tax.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Financial regulation, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: consumption tax, corporate income tax, Italy, Japan, public debt, small and medium-sized enterprises, tax cuts, tax deduction, tax incentives | Leave a comment »
The recovery continues, but it remains weak, indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April.
We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 from 3.7 percent in April to 3.4 percent today. This headline number makes things look worse than they really are. To a large extent, it reflects something that has already happened, namely the large negative US growth rate in the first quarter. But it is not all due to that. It also reflects a number of small downward revisions, both in advanced and in emerging economies.
The overall story remains largely the same as before:
Advanced economies are still confronted with high levels of public and private debt, which act as brakes on the recovery. These brakes are coming off, but at different rates across countries.
Emerging markets are slowing down from pre-crisis growth rates. They have to address some of their underlying structural problems, and take on structural reforms. At the same time, they have to deal with the implications of monetary policy normalization in the US.
Let me take you on the usual tour of the world.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: China, developing economies, ECB, economic recovery, euro area, France, Germany, IMF forecast, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Olivier Blanchard, Spain, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »