Posted on October 6, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
(Versions in Español, عربي, 中文, Français, Русский and 日本語)
Today, we released the October 2015 World Economic Outlook.
Our forecasts come at a moment when the world economy is at the intersection of at least three powerful forces.
First, China’s economic transformation – away from export- and investment-led growth and manufacturing, in favor of a greater focus on consumption and services. This process, however necessary and healthy in the longer term, has near-term implications for China’s growth and its relations with its trade partners.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, commodiity prices, deflation, emerging markets, exchange rate, forecast, investment, Japan, Latin America, Maurice Obstfeld, monetary policy, Norway, Russia, trade, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 10, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Joong Shik Kang and Shi Piao
(version in 日本語)
Japanese-brand cars have become everyday, household items in the United States, and it’s hard to drive in the country without seeing one on the roads. These cars may be manufactured by Japanese firms, but about 70 percent of these vehicles are actually produced in North America. Globally, in 2014, about two-thirds of Japanese cars were produced on assembly lines outside of that country. Despite the increase in overseas demand for Japanese vehicles, this hasn’t been mirrored by an expansion in investment, and the building of factories in Japan to meet that demand.
Against this background, our IMF Working Paper looks at possible reasons for this sluggish recovery of corporate investment in Japan, focusing on the role of Japanese firms overseas.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform, 日本語 | Tagged: Abenomics, Bank of Japan, energy, investment, Japan, labor force, manufacturing, structural reform | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 24, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake
(Version in 日本語)
Take a walk in Tokyo, and you will see the sign スタッフ募集中, or “Staff Wanted”, outside many restaurants and convenience stores. These businesses often find it impossible to recruit the workers they need. According to recent statistics, for each job seeker in Japan applying to work as a waiter, there are more than three available positions. Home helpers and long-term caregivers are equally in demand. If you want to work as a security guard, you can choose from around five openings, and for some positions in the construction business the job-to-applicant ratio is over six.
Japan’s labor shortages are the result of both a shrinking population—which limits the overall pool of workers—and skill mismatches. The reduced supply of labor is one of the factors bringing down medium-term potential growth, which the International Monetary Fund estimates at just 0.6 percent. Labor market shortages are also bad for short-term growth, because they reduce the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal stimulus that the authorities are using to try to boost demand.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: Abenomics, female labor participation, immigration, investment, Japan, jobs, labor market, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 22, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Andre Meier and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
(Versions in Español and Português)
Latin America’s recent economic fortunes highlight the region’s closer economic ties with Asia. China, in particular, has grown into a crucial source of demand for Latin American commodities over the past two decades, providing significant gains to the region. The flip side is that the ongoing structural slowdown of Chinese investment is weighing considerably on the prices of those commodities, and the countries that export them.
But Asia can be much more than just a source of episodic windfall gains (and losses) for Latin America. Like a windmill, Asia could help to power a stronger Latin American economy—by providing an example of successful regional trade integration and through greater direct links across the Pacific that benefit both sides. However, securing these benefits will require clear and realistic objectives, a long-term strategy, and attention to the political and social implications of greater economic integration.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America | Tagged: Asia, Brazil, Caribbean, Chile, China, foreign direct investment, India, international trade, investment, Japan, Korea, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 13, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Yingyuan Chen, David Jones and Sanjay Hazarika
(Versions in 中文 and deutsch)
Global financial markets traditionally take their cue from the United States. Unexpected Fed rate hikes have unsettled global markets in the past. The entire global financial system threw a tantrum when then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke merely suggested in May 2013 that the end to bond-buying and other policies could soon begin. However for the past year, the gears of global markets seem to have been thrown into reverse — it is German government bonds, known as Bunds, rather than U.S. bonds, known as Treasuries, that appear to be driving prices in global bond markets. This role reversal could add a new layer of complexity to investor calculations as they prepare for the beginning of Fed interest rate hikes, which are expected later in 2015. Also, as developments in Greece lead to rises and falls in Bund and Treasury yields, this is a trend worth keeping an eye on.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: bund, emerging market, European Central Bank, Germany, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, interest rates, Japan, U.S. Treasury, United States, US Federal Reserve | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 9, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in Español and عربي)
Today we published the World Economic Outlook Update.
But first, let me talk about the elephant in the room, namely Greece.
The word elephant may not be right: As dramatic as the events in Greece are, Greece accounts for less than two percent of the Eurozone GDP, and less than one half of one percent of world GDP.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Politics, Reform | Tagged: Brazil, economic forecasts, emerging economies, eurozone, Greece, IMF forecast, Japan, Olivier Blanchard, Russia, Spain, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 20, 2015 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
Financial market liquidity can be fleeting. The ability to trade in assets of any size, at any time and to find a ready buyer is not a given. As discussed in some detail last fall in this blog, a number of factors, including the evolving structure of financial markets and some regulations appear to have pushed liquidity into a new realm: markets look susceptible to episodes of high price volatility where liquidity suddenly vanishes.
In our April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report we identify a new aspect to the problem: asset price correlations have risen sharply in the last five years across all major asset classes (see figure). Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bond markets, central banks, euro area, exchange rate, Financial regulation, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, Japan, market liquidity, market volatility, monetary policy, oil prices, swap lines, Switzerland, U.S. Fed, United States | Leave a comment »