How Lowering Trade Barriers Can Revive Global Productivity and Growth

Posted on June 20, 2016 by iMFdirect

By Era Dabla-Norris and Romain Duval

Version in Español (Spanish)

Weak productivity growth in many advanced and emerging market economies in the wake of the global financial crisis is raising concerns about future growth prospects. New research indicates that easing barriers to international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) could boost productivity and output.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, labor markets, trade | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Unemployment: Troubles Ahead for Emerging Markets

Posted on May 3, 2016 by iMFdirect

By Prakash Loungani and Zidong An

Version in Español (Spanish)

Forecasts of real GDP growth attract a lot of media attention. But what matters more to the person on the street is how growth translates into jobs. Unfortunately, the mediocre growth outlook of recent years may lead to a disturbing outlook for jobs, particularly among fuel-exporting countries and in the Latin America and Caribbean region.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Caribbean, developing countries, Emerging Markets, euro zone, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, U.S., unemployment | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

With China Slowing, Faster Reforms Critical to Generate Jobs

Posted on September 16, 2015 by iMFdirect

By W. Raphael Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Alfred Schipke         

(Version in 中国)            

China is moving toward a “new normal” of safer and more sustainable growth.  To this end, ensuring its labor market stays resilient will be critical.  Reforms to contain vulnerabilities caused by buildup of credits may temporarily slow growth, and raise the unemployment rate, but supported through a strong safety net, these reforms will raise productivity, and facilitate more sustainable growth.

Despite the slowdown of the past few years, however, China’s labor market has remained resilient.  Efforts to maintain labor market stability are paying off, helped by an expanding services sector.

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Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, IMF | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a comment »

Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages

Posted on August 24, 2015 by iMFdirect

By Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake

(Version in 日本語)

Take a walk in Tokyo, and you will see the sign スタッフ募集中, or “Staff Wanted”, outside many restaurants and convenience stores. These businesses often find it impossible to recruit the workers they need. According to recent statistics, for each job seeker in Japan applying to work as a waiter, there are more than three available positions. Home helpers and long-term caregivers are equally in demand. If you want to work as a security guard, you can choose from around five openings, and for some positions in the construction business the job-to-applicant ratio is over six.

Japan’s labor shortages are the result of both a shrinking population—which limits the overall pool of workers—and skill mismatches. The reduced supply of labor is one of the factors bringing down medium-term potential growth, which the International Monetary Fund estimates at just 0.6 percent. Labor market shortages are also bad for short-term growth, because they reduce the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal stimulus that the authorities are using to try to boost demand.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Growth’s Secret Weapon: The Poor and the Middle Class

Posted on June 15, 2015 by iMFdirect

By Era Dabla-Norris, Kalpana Kochhar, and Evridiki Tsounta

(Versions in  Español, 中文 , 日本語, عربي,and Русский)

The gap between the rich and the poor is at its widest in decades in advanced countries, and inequality is also rising in major emerging markets (Chart 1).  It is becoming increasingly clear that these developments have profound economic implications.

SPR Inequality SDN.chart 1rev

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries, Middle East, Reform | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Can Abenomics Succeed? Overcoming the Legacy of the Lost Decades

Posted on April 1, 2015 by iMFdirect

Changyong RheeBy Changyong Rhee

(Versions in 日本語)

Abenomics can succeed, despite recent setbacks to growth and inflation, in revitalizing Japan by making steadfast progress on all three of its arrows equally and simultaneously, as we show in our new book. This is also essential to avoid an undue weakening of the yen and ensure positive spillovers to Japan’s neighbors, its region, and the global economy.

The Legacy: Structural Changes During the Lost Decades

Most Japan followers will be familiar with the following striking statistic: in 2013, Japan’s level of nominal GDP was about 6 percent below its mid 1990s level. During this period, three important structural changes have been a brake on growth and efforts to get out of deflation: Continue reading →

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Fiscal Policy And Structural Reform

Posted on March 27, 2015 by iMFdirect

Vitor GasparBy Vitor Gaspar 

One of the big questions to emerge from the global financial crisis, especially in the euro area, is how to raise a country’s potential growth while restoring healthy public finances. For example, the euro area— despite some favorable news recently — faces marked-down growth prospects alongside high levels of public debt. The combination of high debt and tepid potential growth underscores the importance of improving prospects for sustained growth and safe and resilient public finances. A fundamental question then arises: what is the relation between fiscal consolidation and structural reform?

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

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