Posted on January 5, 2017 by iMFdirect
The IMF will assess a range of financial systems in 2017: large ones such as China and Japan, medium-sized ones like Luxembourg, Spain, and Turkey, and small ones such as Guyana and Zambia. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic research, Financial markets, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy | Tagged: Bahrain, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Finland, FSAP, Germany, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Japan, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, Zambia | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 26, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Yasser Abdih
There was a time when U.S. central bankers worried that inflation was too high, and they tried to bring it down. Now the opposite is true: the Federal Reserve is concerned that inflation has remained stubbornly low, and it’s trying to boost prices. The reason: persistently low inflation raises the risk that prices will actually start to decline, a dangerous condition known as deflation. That’s bad news because it makes people less willing to borrow and spend—anticipating lower prices, consumers will put off spending—and could also lead to a fall in wages. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, inflation, International Monetary Fund, U.S. | Tagged: borrowing, Canada, China, core inflation, deflation, exports, Federal Reserve, IMF, inflation, Mexico, Philips Curve, spending, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 20, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
Versions in: Português (Portuguese), Español (Spanish)
Following a rough start at the beginning of the year, both external and domestic conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean have improved. But the outlook for the region is still uncertain.
Commodity prices have recovered since their February 2016 trough, but they are still expected to remain low for the foreseeable future. This has been accompanied by a brake—or even a reversal—in the large exchange rate depreciations in some of the largest economies in the region.
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, South America, trade, Transition | Tagged: Argentina, Brazil, Brexit, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, exchange rate depreciation, export revenues, GDP, growth potential, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Mexico, Peru, trade, Uruguay, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 25, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Carlos Caceres and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
Versions in Português (Portuguese) and Español (Spanish)
The rapid increase in Latin American corporate debt—fueled by an abundance of cheap foreign money during the past decade—has contributed to an increase in corporate risk. Total debt of nonfinancial firms in Latin America increased from US$170 billion in 2010 to US$383 billion in 2015. With potential growth across countries in the region slowing, in line with the end of the commodity supercycle, it will now be more difficult for firms to operate under increased debt burdens and reduced safety margins.
In this environment, Latin American firms are walking a tightrope. With external financial conditions tightening, the walk towards the other side—notably through adjustment and deleveraging—while necessary, has become riskier. After making good progress, the crossing has also become more perilous due to strong headwinds—including slower global demand and bouts of heightened market volatility.
Filed under: Emerging Markets, Fiscal, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Corporate Risk, credit default swaps, financial volatility, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Mexico, Panama, Peru | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 4, 2016 by iMFdirect
Today the IMF published some of its new research from the Global Financial Stability Report on two hot topics: emerging economies and the insurance sector in advanced economies. Here’s a quick take on the latest analysis. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, China, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Brazil, China, Global Financial Stability Report, insurance, interest rates, Mexico, South Africa | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 4, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Natalija Novta and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
(Versions in Español and Português)
Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is suffering a double whammy—economic activity has slowed down sharply and the medium-term outlook continues to deteriorate. It is therefore not surprising that policymakers across the region are eagerly searching for ways to revitalize growth.
One answer may be more trade—both within the region and with the rest of the world. Our new study analyzes the export performance in developing and emerging market regions over the past two decades to assess the potential for future export growth in Latin America. We find evidence that most countries in the region “undertrade” compared to what standard models would predict. This has been an entrenched problem for almost a quarter of a century, partly as a result of the region’s geography and a legacy of protectionist policies.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Español, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America | Tagged: Argentina, Asia, Brazil, Caribbean, Chile, China, Colombia, Japan, Korea, Latin America, Mexico, oil exporters, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, South America, trade, United States, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Carlos Caceres, Yan Carrière-Swallow, and Bertrand Gruss
(Versions in Español and Português)
As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to raise policy rates for the first time in almost a decade, Latin America is in the midst of a sharp downturn with unemployment on the rise. In this context, many central banks across the region have kept interest rates low to support economic activity. But can monetary policy stay that way as global rates rise? What will the Fed liftoff imply for the region?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: interest rates, Latin America, Mexico, monetary policy, Peru, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, spillovers, U.S. Federal Reserve, United States | Leave a comment »