The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits


By Andy Jobst and Huidan Lin

Versions in Français (French), and Español (Spanish)

More than two years ago, seeking to revive a moribund economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked on a new monetary policy measure: charging interest on excess liquidity that banks held at the central bank. The move complemented a series of other easing measures aimed at bringing inflation back to the ECB’s price stability objective of below, but close to, two percent over the medium term. Continue reading

Getting into Higher Gear: Why Structural Reforms Are Critical for Revving Up Global Growth


David Lipton 2016-1By David Lipton

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Español (Spanish)

Almost a decade after the start of the global financial crisis, the world economy is still trying to achieve escape velocity. The IMF’s recent forecast for global growth is a disappointing 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.4 percent in 2017. And the outlook remains clouded by increased economic and political uncertainty, including from the impact of the Brexit vote.

Policymakers have taken forceful macroeconomic policy action to support growth, such as fiscal stimulus and appropriately accommodative monetary policy. But a lasting recovery remains elusive. Continue reading

The People’s Bank of China: Monetary Policy in a Time of Transition


by iMFdirect

Today at the IMF, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, gave the Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture in Washington, D.C.

With China’s economy undergoing a transition, Governor Zhou spoke about managing monetary policy with multiple objectives, and the independence of central banks.

“For central banks with a single objective, it is relatively easy to be independent. However, if a central bank has multiple objectives, it may be harder to be immune from the political reality.”

Zhou also discussed the role of central banks in economies undergoing a transition to a market economy.

“If central banks do not promote financial reforms or development of financial markets, there would be no healthy financial institutions or market mechanisms, let alone smooth transmission of monetary policy. Furthermore, like other emerging market economies, transition economies have a low level of development and hoped to make up for the ‘lost decades’.”

You can watch Governor Zhou’s speech and his discussion with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

PBOC pic

Learning to Adjust: The Effects of Currency Depreciations on Inflation in Latin America


By Yan Carrière-Swallow and Bertrand Gruss

(Versions in Español and Português)

Falling global commodity prices and the normalization of monetary policy in the United States have contributed to widespread currency depreciations in Latin America. In theory, a falling currency is expected to create inflation by driving up the price of imported goods and services—triggering what economists call exchange rate pass-through.

Continue reading

Warning Signs as Global Financial Risks Increase


GFSRBy José Viñals

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

 

Over the last six months, global financial stability risks increased as a result of the following developments:

  • First, macroeconomic risks have risen, reflecting a weaker and more uncertain outlook for growth and inflation, and more subdued sentiment. These risks were highlighted yesterday at the World Economic Outlook press conference.
  • Second, falling commodity prices and concerns about China’s economy have put pressure on emerging markets and advanced economy credit markets.
  • Finally, confidence in policy traction has slipped, amid concerns about the ability of overburdened monetary policies to offset the impact of higher economic and political risks.

Continue reading

The Broader View: The Positive Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates


By Jose ViñalsSimon Gray, and Kelly Eckhold

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), Deutsch (German), 日本語 (Japanese), and Español (Spanish)

We support the introduction of negative policy rates by some central banks given the significant risks we see to the outlook for growth and inflation. Such bold policy action is unprecedented, and its effects over time will vary among countries. There have been negative real rates in a number of countries over time; it is negative nominal rates that are new. Our analysis takes a broad view of recent events to examine what is new, country experiences so far, the effectiveness of negative nominal rates as well as their limits and their unintended consequences. Although the experience with negative nominal interest rates is limited, we tentatively conclude that overall, they help deliver additional monetary stimulus and easier financial conditions, which support demand and price stability. Still, there are limits on how far and for how long negative policy rates can go. Continue reading

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Canada’s House-Price Dilemma


By Cheng Hoon Lim

(Version in Français)

Canada’s housing market is sizzling hot and the Bank of Canada has a monetary policy dilemma: increase interest rates to cool the housing market would hurt borrowers and the economy; keep interest rates low adds fuel to the borrowing that led to the rise in housing prices and in household debt. What to do?

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