Posted on June 8, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Martin Sommer, Juan Treviño, and Neil Hickey
Version in عربي (Arabic)
The significant and prolonged drop in oil prices since mid-2014 has changed the fortunes of many energy-exporting nations around the world. This applies particularly to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, because these regions are home to 11 of the world’s top 20 energy exporters.
Filed under: Central Asia, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, trade | Tagged: budget deficits, Central Asia, energy prices, exchange rate, exports, fiscal policy, growth, Gulf countries, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, oil exporters, oil prices | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 24, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Rabah Arezki
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),
日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)
Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat, and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment.
Filed under: Employment, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, U.S. | Tagged: energy, GDP, IMF, Maurice Obstfeld, Middle East, oil exporters, oil prices, OPEC, Russia, sovereign wealth funds, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 4, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Natalija Novta and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
(Versions in Español and Português)
Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is suffering a double whammy—economic activity has slowed down sharply and the medium-term outlook continues to deteriorate. It is therefore not surprising that policymakers across the region are eagerly searching for ways to revitalize growth.
One answer may be more trade—both within the region and with the rest of the world. Our new study analyzes the export performance in developing and emerging market regions over the past two decades to assess the potential for future export growth in Latin America. We find evidence that most countries in the region “undertrade” compared to what standard models would predict. This has been an entrenched problem for almost a quarter of a century, partly as a result of the region’s geography and a legacy of protectionist policies.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Español, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America | Tagged: Argentina, Asia, Brazil, Caribbean, Chile, China, Colombia, Japan, Korea, Latin America, Mexico, oil exporters, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, South America, trade, United States, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 26, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Rabah Arezki, Adnan Mazarei, and Ananthakrishnan Prasad
(Versions in عربي and 中文)
As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. The growth in the assets of their sovereign wealth funds, which were rising at a rapid rate until recently, is now slowing; some have started drawing on their buffers.
In the short run, this phenomenon is not cause for alarm. Most oil exporters have enough buffers to withstand a temporary drop in oil prices. But what will happen if low oil prices persist, and how will policymakers react?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Middle East | Tagged: GCC, Kuwait, MENA, Middle East, oil exporters, oil prices, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, sovereign funding, sovereign wealth funds, U.S. Federal Reserve, U.S. monetary policy, United Arab Emirates | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 8, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Pritha Mitra
(Versions in Français and عربي)
Aspirations for greater fairness were at the core of the protests that triggered the Arab Spring almost five years ago—and remain largely unfulfilled today. In our new paper, we show that tax reform can go a long way towards meeting those aspirations.
Taxation is a critical interface between the state and citizens. How much revenue is raised, how the tax burden is distributed, and how taxation is implemented can all powerfully affect both the reality and the perception of economic opportunities—and the degree of trust in government.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Reform, عربي | Tagged: Algeria, Arab Spring, income tax, Iran, Middle East and North Africa, oil exporters, oil importers, tax reform, tax system, taxation, taxes, Value-Added Tax, Yemen | 1 Comment »
Posted on July 16, 2015 by iMFdirect
Remember when oil was the big story? Yeah, us too. And we’re still thinking through the issues and what they mean for oil importers and exporters, as well as the global economy.
This week IMF economists released a new paper, and we interviewed the lead author in this podcast, that delves into the benefits of lower oil prices for consumers and for the global economy.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East | Tagged: oil, oil exporters, oil importers | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 15, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Benedict Clements and Marta Ruiz-Arranz
(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, عربي and Español)
Plunging oil prices have taken the public finances on an exciting ride the past six months. Oil prices have fallen about 45 percent since September (see April 2015 World Economic Outlook), putting a big dent in the revenues of oil exporters, while providing oil importers an unexpected windfall. How has the decline in oil prices affected the public finances, and how should oil importers and exporters adjust to this new state of affairs?
In the April 2015 Fiscal Monitor, we argue that the oil price decline provides a golden opportunity to initiate serious energy subsidy and taxation reforms that would lock in savings, improve the public finances and boost long-term economic growth.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Reform | Tagged: Angola, commodiity prices, Egypt, energy prices, energy subsidies, fiscal balances, Fiscal Monitor, Gulf Cooperation Council, India, Indonesia, inflation, Malaysia, Norway, oil exporters, oil importers, oil prices, taxation | Leave a comment »