Posted on October 27, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
While oil prices have stabilized somewhat in recent months, there are good reasons to believe they won’t return to the high levels that preceded their historic collapse two years ago. For one thing, shale oil production has permanently added to supply at lower prices. For another, demand will be curtailed by slower growth in emerging markets and global efforts to cut down on carbon emissions. It all adds up to a “new normal” for oil.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, technology | Tagged: advanced economies, China, COP21, developing economies, economic growth, emerging market economies, financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Iran, oil, oil prices, OPEC, Russia, shale oil, technology | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 8, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Martin Sommer, Juan Treviño, and Neil Hickey
Version in عربي (Arabic)
The significant and prolonged drop in oil prices since mid-2014 has changed the fortunes of many energy-exporting nations around the world. This applies particularly to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, because these regions are home to 11 of the world’s top 20 energy exporters.
Filed under: Central Asia, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, trade | Tagged: budget deficits, Central Asia, energy prices, exchange rate, exports, fiscal policy, growth, Gulf countries, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, oil exporters, oil prices | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 24, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Rabah Arezki
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),
日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)
Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat, and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment.
Filed under: Employment, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, U.S. | Tagged: energy, GDP, IMF, Maurice Obstfeld, Middle East, oil exporters, oil prices, OPEC, Russia, sovereign wealth funds, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 25, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Jeff Hayden
(Versions in عربي and Español)
Say “population growth” and many people immediately think of resources under stress. The mind jumps to 19th century scholar Thomas Malthus, who saw population outstripping the food supply, or to Paul Ehrlich, whose 1968 book The Population Bomb warned of global catastrophe from overpopulation.
Filed under: Africa, China, Employment, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: demographics, El Nino, employment, Finance & Development magazine, fiscal policy, inflation, oil prices, population aging, Sub-Saharan Africa, wages, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 22, 2016 by iMFdirect
- Alejandro Werner
By Alejandro Werner
(Versions in Español and Português)
It’s been a rough start to 2016, as seen by the recent bouts of financial volatility, stemming from uncertainties related to the slowdown in China, lower commodity prices, and divergent monetary policy in advanced economies.
The global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, with strains in some large emerging market economies weighing on growth prospects. For Latin America and the Caribbean, growth in 2016 is now expected to be negative for the second consecutive year—the first time since the debt crisis of 1982–83, which triggered the “lost decade” for the region (see table). Continue reading
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, growth, IMF, Latin America | Tagged: Caribbean, Central Am, commodity prices, financial volatility, growth, IMF, Latin America, macroeconomic imbalances, Mercosur, oil prices, South America | Leave a comment »