What the G20 Can Do to Help the Global Recovery

Posted on February 24, 2016 by iMFdirect

By iMFdirect

(Versions in عربي and Español)

Shanghai will welcome finance ministers and central bank governors for the first ministerial meeting under China’s Group of Twenty presidency this weekend. The meeting comes at a critical time for the global economy. A note by IMF staff prepared as background for the G20 meeting, Global Prospects and Policy Challenges, points to a tepid recovery, and warns that weaker global growth might well be in the cards. This calls for a strong policy response, both national and multilateral, including from the G20.

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Filed under: Economic research, G-20, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, refugees | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Top Five Policy Priorities to Brighten America’s Economic Future

Posted on November 5, 2014 by iMFdirect

Deniz IganBy Deniz Igan

(version in Español)

There was a time in the not-so-distant past when science fiction could make us look forward to a better world. We had uplifting visions of the future in shows like Star Trek and Back to the Future. Today, the menu of options only offers a dystopian world ruined by poverty and violence (think The Hunger Games, Divergent, or Elysium).

It sure is easy to get pessimistic these days. Six years after the financial crisis, the recovery in the United States has been fragile and weaker than anything we have seen in the post-WWII period. Growth figures, in large part, have been serial disappointments, disrupted by government shutdowns, debt ceiling showdowns, or meteorologically-triggered slowdowns.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, Politics, Reform | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

It’s Unofficial!

Posted on October 12, 2014 by iMFdirect

DSC_7906By Sabina Bhatia 

I know it might sound odd, but I actually like the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. I know the traffic snarls on Pennsylvania Avenue are terrible, Washington cabbies ruder than ever, lots of men in dark suits (and sadly, they are still mostly men), and there is the constant rush from meeting to meeting.

But beyond the long lines, long hours, cold coffee and the constant buzz of communiqués, press releases, and scores of official meetings, I find my place in the  rich and stimulating discussions among the non-official community.

This year, over 600 civil society organizations, including members of parliament, academics, and several youth and labor groups, came to the meetings. They deliberated, discussed and debated some thorny issues. The burning issues close to their hearts? Not that different from what officials are also debating.  Here is some of what I heard:

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Filed under: Africa, Annual Meetings, Civil Society, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Global Governance, IMF | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Europe’s Economic Outlook

Posted on April 11, 2014 by iMFdirect

moghadamsmallBy Reza Moghadam

Economic growth across Europe is slowly picking up, which is good news. But the recovery is still modest and measures to boost economic growth and create jobs are important.

Western Europe: picking up the pace

The recovery projected last October for the euro area has solidified. This is reflected in our revised forecasts—e.g., the 2014 forecast for the euro area is up from 1 percent last October to 1.2 percent now, with important upgrades in countries like Spain. These revisions reflect the stronger data flow on the back of past policy actions, the revival of investor confidence, and the waning drag from fiscal consolidation. The positive impact on program countries is palpable—improving economies, lower spreads, and evidence of market access. We’ve also seen a welcome pick-up in growth in the UK (almost 3 percent is expected for 2014).

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

How Real Is The Recovery In The Euro Area?

Posted on February 27, 2014 by iMFdirect

moghadamsmall By Reza Moghadam

Is the recovery everyone has been waiting for finally here? Encouraging signs from Europe—rising share prices, lower sovereign bond yields, and increased risk appetite—reflect an upturn in high-frequency indicators, the first signs of positive domestic demand in the euro area, and the prospect of less drag from fiscal consolidation.

At the same time, there are formidable headwinds to overcome. Debt owed by households and businesses remains high, making a rapid pick-up in consumption and investment unlikely. Contracting bank lending, as well as relatively tougher credit conditions in the countries most in need of support, are also holding back recovery. And reducing unacceptably high levels of unemployment depends on strong growth.

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Filed under: Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a comment »

Unleashing Brazil’s Growth

Posted on November 27, 2013 by iMFdirect

By Martin Kaufman and Mercedes García-Escribano

(Version in Español and Português)

Since the early 2000s, Brazil’s economy has grown at a robust clip, with growth in 2010 reaching 7.5 percent—its strongest in a quarter of a century. A key pillar of its hard-won economic success has been sound economic policies and the adoption of far-reaching social programs, which resulted in a substantial decline in poverty.

In the last couple of years Brazil’s growth slowed down. Although other emerging market economies experienced a similar slowdown, the growth outturns in Brazil were particularly disappointing. And the measures taken to stimulate the economy did not produce a sustained recovery. This is because unleashing sustained growth in Brazil requires measures geared not at stimulating domestic demand but at changing the composition of demand towards investment and at increasing productivity.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Español, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Português, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Hi-Fis and Low Gears: Manufacturing’s Bounce in the U.S.

Posted on September 9, 2013 by iMFdirect

Tim MahedyBy Tim Mahedy

(Version in Español)

It’s no secret that the manufacturing sector in the United States has been in decline for the past three decades. But a strong rebound in durable goods, such as cars and electronics, has helped revive the manufacturing sector and has supported the post-recession recovery.

As of early 2013, manufacturing output was only 4 percentage points below its pre-recession peak. Comparing across countries, the United States has performed more strongly than most of its G-7 counterparts, with the exception of Germany. Yet, the recovery in Germany has stagnated since mid-2011, while the U.S. recovery continues to gain steam.

Is this strong rebound in U.S. manufacturing here to stay, or just a temporary phenomenon?

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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