Posted on October 27, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
While oil prices have stabilized somewhat in recent months, there are good reasons to believe they won’t return to the high levels that preceded their historic collapse two years ago. For one thing, shale oil production has permanently added to supply at lower prices. For another, demand will be curtailed by slower growth in emerging markets and global efforts to cut down on carbon emissions. It all adds up to a “new normal” for oil.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, technology | Tagged: advanced economies, China, COP21, developing economies, economic growth, emerging market economies, financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Iran, oil, oil prices, OPEC, Russia, shale oil, technology | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 20, 2016 by iMFdirect
(Versions in: Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, Hungarian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Serbian, and Slovenian)
The opening up of Eastern Europe to the rest of the world in the early 1990s brought about tremendous benefits. The inflow of capital and innovation has led to better institutions, better economic management, and higher efficiency. On the flip side, it has also led to sizable and persistent outflow of people.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Employment, euro zone, Europe, growth, income, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Migration, refugees, unemployment | Tagged: advanced economies, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, East-West migration, eastern Europe, emigration, employment, Estonia, Europe, European Union, GDP, growth, Hungary, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, jobs, labor force, Latvia, Lithuania, pan-European, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 24, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Rabah Arezki
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),
日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)
Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat, and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment.
Filed under: Employment, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, U.S. | Tagged: energy, GDP, IMF, Maurice Obstfeld, Middle East, oil exporters, oil prices, OPEC, Russia, sovereign wealth funds, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 9, 2015 by iMFdirect
by John Caparusso, Yingyuan Chen, Evan Papageorgiou and Shamir Tanna
(Versions in 中文, Português, Русский, and Español)
Emerging markets have had a great run. The fifteen largest emerging market economies grew by 48% from 2009 to 2014, a period when the Group of Twenty economies collectively expanded by 6%.
How did emerging markets sustain this growth? In part, they drew upon bank lending to drive corporate credit expansion, strong earnings, and low defaults. This credit boom, combined with falling commodity prices and foreign currency borrowing, now leaves emerging market firms vulnerable and financial sectors under stress, as we discuss in the latest Global Financial Stability Report.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: Argentina, bank lending, Brazil, China, commodiity prices, credit boom, debt, emerging markets, G20, Global Financial Stability Report, India, Indonesia, macroprudential policies, Russia, Thailand, Turkey | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 6, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
(Versions in Español, عربي, 中文, Français, Русский and 日本語)
Today, we released the October 2015 World Economic Outlook.
Our forecasts come at a moment when the world economy is at the intersection of at least three powerful forces.
First, China’s economic transformation – away from export- and investment-led growth and manufacturing, in favor of a greater focus on consumption and services. This process, however necessary and healthy in the longer term, has near-term implications for China’s growth and its relations with its trade partners.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, commodiity prices, deflation, emerging markets, exchange rate, forecast, investment, Japan, Latin America, Maurice Obstfeld, monetary policy, Norway, Russia, trade, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 10, 2015 by iMFdirect
Ever wonder to what extent Russia depends on oil revenues—and what happens to such an economy when crude prices fall by half? Or what the tangible effects are of sanctions when a country falls out of favor with its trading partners?
Well the IMF’s latest annual assessment of Russia’s economy shows cheap oil and sanctions together have helped drag the country into a recession.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Globalization, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: advanced economies, economic growth, Europe, global economy, oil prices, Russia | Leave a comment »