Posted on February 2, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Plamen Iossifov and Jiri Podpiera
Inflation has been falling sharply across Europe since 2012 (see Charts 1 and 2). Across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), inflation expectations have also drifted down especially among countries who peg their currencies to the euro (Bulgaria, Croatia, as well as Lithuania, which adopted the euro on January 1, 2015), but also in those that target their inflation rate (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania).
The recent drop in world oil prices has re-ignited the debate about good vs. bad disinflation. For the euro area, risks from low inflation have been discussed in the March 2014 iMFdirect post. Our blog examines the causes and potential consequences of falling inflation from the perspective of EU countries outside the euro zone.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics, Reform | Tagged: Central Europe, commodiity prices, core inflation, Czech Republic, deflation, disinflation, eastern Europe, euro, euro zone, exchange rate, food prices, Hungary, inflation, oil prices, Poland, Romania, spillover, Sweden, unemployment | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 14, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Prakash Loungani
(Version in Français and Español)
Seven years after the onset of the Great Recession, the global unemployment rate has returned to its pre-crisis level: the jobless rate fell to 5.6% in 2014; essentially the same as in 2007, the year before the recession (chart 1, left panel).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: Australia, China, emerging market, European Union, Great Recession, Greece, infrastructure, investment, Ireland, Israel, jobs, labor market, monetary policy, Singapore, Spain, U.S., unemployment, unemployment rate | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 19, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)
Unemployment is a global problem. If the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. Of the nearly 200 million people around the world looking for work, half are in emerging markets and about a quarter in advanced economies, reflecting the growing weight of emerging markets in the global labor force (Figure 1).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, unemployment | Tagged: advanced economies, emerging economies, frontier economies, G20, gowth, infrastructure, job creation, jobs, labor force, Russia, unemployment, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 14, 2014 by iMFdirect
By iMFdirect editors
What a week it’s been. Practical and existential questions on how to do good and be good for the sake of the global economy and finance dominated the seminars at the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Washington.
Our editors fanned out to cover what the panelists, moderators, and audiences said in a variety of seminars, and two big themes caught our eye.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Civil Society, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Global Governance, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: Archbishop of Canterbury, Christine Lagarde, ethics, Europe, G-20, inequality, infrastructure, jobs, Larry Summers, Paul Krugman, seminars, shadow banking, Stanley Fisher, technology, unemployment, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 12, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Sabina Bhatia
I know it might sound odd, but I actually like the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. I know the traffic snarls on Pennsylvania Avenue are terrible, Washington cabbies ruder than ever, lots of men in dark suits (and sadly, they are still mostly men), and there is the constant rush from meeting to meeting.
But beyond the long lines, long hours, cold coffee and the constant buzz of communiqués, press releases, and scores of official meetings, I find my place in the rich and stimulating discussions among the non-official community.
This year, over 600 civil society organizations, including members of parliament, academics, and several youth and labor groups, came to the meetings. They deliberated, discussed and debated some thorny issues. The burning issues close to their hearts? Not that different from what officials are also debating. Here is some of what I heard:
Filed under: Africa, Annual Meetings, Civil Society, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Global Governance, IMF | Tagged: academics, civil society organizations, debt, ebola, inequality, infrastructure, investment, jobs, Labor, parliament, recovery, unemployment, women, youth | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 8, 2014 by iMFdirect
by Vitor Gaspar
(version in Español, Français, 中文, Русский, and 日本語)
Unemployment remains unacceptably high in many countries. It increased dramatically during the Great Recession. Global unemployment currently exceeds 200 million people. An additional 13 million people are expected to be unemployed by 2018.
The most worrisome is youth unemployment. There are examples of advanced economies in Europe where youth unemployment surged above 50 percent. In several developing economies, job creation does not absorb the large number of young workers entering the labor force every year.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: bond markets, economic reform, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Great Recession, inflation, interest rates, labor market, public investment, structural policies, unemployment, youth unemployment | 2 Comments »
Posted on September 10, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Francesco Columba and Jarkko Turunen
(Versión en español)
photo: Patrick H. Corkery/DoD/Sipa USA/Newscom
After more than five years of exceptionally low interest rates, the U.S. Fed is getting closer to the point of managing a liftoff of policy interest rates from close to zero. As of today, liftoff is expected to take place by around mid-2015.
But this is not set in stone. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized that the timing will depend on the state of the U.S. economy. If things look better, policy rates may increase earlier. Conversely, weaker than expected data may well mean that interest rates will move up later.
In our view, based on our most recent economic projections, there is some scope for policy rates to stay at zero for a little while longer than mid-2015, given the remaining slack in the labor market and still low inflation.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Employment, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: fiscal policy, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, unemployment, United States, US Federal Reserve | Leave a comment »