Why International Financial Cooperation Remains Essential


By Tobias Adrian and Maurice Obstfeld

Economic growth appears to be strengthening across the large economies, but that does not mean financial-sector regulation can now be relaxed. On the contrary, it remains more necessary than ever, as does international cooperation to ensure the safety and resilience of global capital markets. That is why the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors reiterated their support for continuing financial-sector reform at their meeting in Baden-Baden last week. Continue reading

OPEC’s Rebalancing Act


By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto

Versions in عربي (Arabic), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

In November 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to maintain output despite a perceived global glut of oil. The result was a steep decline in price.

Two years later, on November 30, 2016, the organization took a different tack and committed to a six-month, 1.2 million barrel a day (3.5 percent) reduction in OPEC crude oil output to 32.5 million barrels per day, effective in January 2017. The result was a small price increase and some price stability. Continue reading

Maintaining the Positive Momentum of the Global Economy


Lagarde.2015MDPORTRAIT4_114x128By Christine Lagarde

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French),  Deutsch (German), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Baden-Baden, the German spa town built on ancient thermal springs, is a fitting venue to discuss the health of the global economy during this week’s meeting of the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors.

Policymakers will likely share a sense of growing optimism, because the recent strengthening of activity suggests that the world economy may finally snap out of its multi-year convalescence.  Continue reading

Revisiting the Paradox of Capital: The Reversal of Uphill Flows


By Emine Boz, Luis Cubeddu, and Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Basic economic theory tells us that capital should flow from slow-growing rich countries to faster-growing poor ones in search of higher returns. A decade ago, our former Research Department colleagues Eswar Prasad, Raghuram Rajan, and Arvind Subramanian examined why the reverse had been true—capital generally flowed “uphill” from poorer to richer countries. Building on the seminal work of Robert Lucas, they argued that certain characteristics of poorer countries, such as weaker institutions and lower levels of education, may reduce the risk-adjusted returns to investing there.  Continue reading

Chart of the Week: More Women, More Growth


By iMFdirect

International Women’s Day and the United States’ February jobs report are both coming up this week. So, we decided today’s chart should focus on women and work.

Around the world, women seeking employment face barriers—from legal hurdles to disincentives like lower wages. Leveling the playing field could bring significant benefits.  Continue reading

A Shifting Global Economic Landscape: Update to the World Economic Outlook


maury-obstfeld-blogsize-final2By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in عربي (Arabic),  中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese),  Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.

An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen.  Continue reading

What the Fed Rate Rise Means for Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets


By Adrian Alter and Selim Elekdag

Versions in عربي (Arabic), and Español (Spanish)

In December 2016, the U.S. Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year, and said they planned more increases in 2017.  Emerging market currencies took a bit of a dive, but overall investors didn’t overreact and run for the doors with their money.  For the bigger picture, you can read IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld’s blog that outlines how the U.S. election and Fed decision will impact the global economy.  Continue reading

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